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How to know when the Bear Run is Finished
#1
Lightbulb 
We are currently in the middle of one of, if not the biggest, bear runs on any market seen in history.

Here is a simple method to know when the Bear Run is finished.

I can say with over 80% confidence that this method works.

I live in Australia, so the most convenient method of buying Cryptos for me currently, is to use BTCMarkets.net

Now, BTCMarkets.net is an exchange on which I have observed quite a strange phenomenon.

When the global Bitcoin and Ethereum markets are in a bull run, the average price of Bitcoin and Ethereum on BTCMarkets.net will be higher than the global price.

When the global Bitcoin and Ethereum market are in a bear run, the average price of Bitcoin and Ethereum on BTCMarkets.net will be lower than the global price.

I don't know the reason this is so. Perhaps in Australia, we follow the market and exaggerate the general global sentiment.

Here is the takeaway:
  • Monitor Coinmarketcap.com
  • Look at the prices of:
  1. Bitcoin (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) and
  2. Ethereum (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/)
  • Click on the "Markets" tab and search for "BTC Markets":
  1. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets
  2. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/#markets
  • Currently the price of BTC and ETH are lower on BTC Markets, but it will be higher than global average once the market recovers.
If you are thinking of buying bitcoin or ethereum, the sweet spot may be when the sentiment on BTC Markets starts to be equal or higher than the global average.
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#2
Nice one if true!
Cardano is the most promising 3 gen. crypto right now.


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#3
(2018-02-06, 07:50 AM)Jacob Wrote: We are currently in the middle of one of, if not the biggest, bear runs on any market seen in history.

Here is a simple method to know when the Bear Run is finished.

I can say with over 80% confidence that this method works.

I live in Australia, so the most convenient method of buying Cryptos for me currently, is to use BTCMarkets.net

Now, BTCMarkets.net is an exchange on which I have observed quite a strange phenomenon.

When the global Bitcoin and Ethereum markets are in a bull run, the average price of Bitcoin and Ethereum on BTCMarkets.net will be higher than the global price.

When the global Bitcoin and Ethereum market are in a bear run, the average price of Bitcoin and Ethereum on BTCMarkets.net will be lower than the global price.

I don't know the reason this is so. Perhaps in Australia, we follow the market and exaggerate the general global sentiment.

Here is the takeaway:
  • Monitor Coinmarketcap.com
  • Look at the prices of:
  1. Bitcoin (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) and
  2. Ethereum (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/)
  • Click on the "Markets" tab and search for "BTC Markets":
  1. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets
  2. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/#markets
  • Currently the price of BTC and ETH are lower on BTC Markets, but it will be higher than global average once the market recovers.
If you are thinking of buying bitcoin or ethereum, the sweet spot may be when the sentiment on BTC Markets starts to be equal or higher than the global average.
If I didn't missunderstood, you compare the price of BTC on btcmarket.net and the average price on coinmarketcap.com?
So when price on btcmarkets.net is higher than the average price on coinmarketcap it would be OK?
What is this thing that builds our dreams, yet slips away from us?

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#4
(2018-02-06, 09:01 PM)Hugues Wrote: If I didn't missunderstood, you compare the price of BTC on btcmarket.net and the average price on coinmarketcap.com?
So when price on btcmarkets.net is higher than the average price on coinmarketcap it would be OK?

Yes, Hugues. That is my theory.

And now, we will know if it is right, because the price difference between coinmarketcap.com average and the btcmarkets.net market price has reversed. If this trend continues over the weekend, it may be good news for crypto holders.

BTCMarkets is now costlier than the global average. This should mean the market will be going up again. Maybe not quite a sustained bull run like before, but at least not bearish overall.
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#5
Right now ETH is $809.8.

Bitstamp has $810 and BTC Markets $819. Yesterday both Bitstamp and BTC Market was below average.

If I on Bitstamp look at the tradingview you can see the buy orders vs the sell orders. Right now the balance is that sell is much more steep than buying. Yesterday it was the reverse. .... but the price continues to climb up anyway....very very strange.
Cardano is the most promising 3 gen. crypto right now.


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#6
(2018-02-07, 12:15 PM)Carsten Wrote: Right now ETH is $809.8.

Bitstamp has $810 and BTC Markets $819. Yesterday both Bitstamp and BTC Market was below average.

If I on Bitstamp look at the tradingview you can see the buy orders vs the sell orders. Right now the balance is that sell is much more steep than buying. Yesterday it was the reverse. .... but the price continues to climb up anyway....very very strange.

Interesting. That could indicate that there are some new buyers who are buying at market rates, instead of placing a lower limit order.
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#7
(2018-02-07, 02:58 PM)Jacob Wrote:
(2018-02-07, 12:15 PM)Carsten Wrote: Right now ETH is $809.8.

Bitstamp has $810 and BTC Markets $819. Yesterday both Bitstamp and BTC Market was below average.

If I on Bitstamp look at the tradingview you can see the buy orders vs the sell orders. Right now the balance is that sell is much more steep than buying. Yesterday it was the reverse. .... but the price continues to climb up anyway....very very strange.

Interesting. That could indicate that there are some new buyers who are buying at market rates, instead of placing a lower limit order.

Yes that could explain the behaviour!
Cardano is the most promising 3 gen. crypto right now.


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#8
Thanks Jacob, interesting method!
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#9
Eth avg. 806. Bitstamp 807 and BTC markets 816....interesting day ahead.
Cardano is the most promising 3 gen. crypto right now.


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#10
In the past few months (weeks) I told several times not to sell any of your assets in your portofolio when all coins where in free fall.
This is why, and how I see it.
[Image: main-qimg-40024a1a14bc0a6db72f7a40c3254fae]

Right now the cryptocurrency market seems to be heading towards the depression stage, we are only humans and humans are very emotional, especially when money is at stake.

However a good investor knows that he cannot rely on his emotions, instead he will use the emotions of other investors to his own benefit.

You see, a lot of people are simply using cryptocurrency as a get rich quick scheme, they neglect to do any research themselves, instead they simply invest in a flavour of the month cryptocurrency which they believe will make them millionaires overnight.

Every story I have heard about crypto-millionaires involves people who saw the potential when no one else did, how many people knew about Bitcoin when it was less than a dollar? Now how many of those people actually bought any?

Most people have a bandwagon mentality and only want to jump on the train once it has left, why did so many people wait for Bitcoin to reach $20k before buying in?

Those are the same people panic selling now and to be honest they probably deserve it for being greedy. If you do not believe in something why would you put money in to it?

If you own any cryptocurrency I would advise you to hold it, selling at a loss is a very poor strategy and the people who sell at losses are usually the same ones who buy back once the price has risen again.

It is common knowledge amongst experienced investors that the best time to buy is when everyone is scared and the prices are falling.
What is this thing that builds our dreams, yet slips away from us?

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