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Trumps political play - Printable Version

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Trumps political play - Hugues - 2019-01-07

The shutdown is a fact in the US.
Trump wants the construction of his famous wall to be financed and the democrats gladly put a line through those plans.
The result is that a large number of government departments are running out of money and that has an impact on about 800,000 civil servants who can no longer be paid.
"No problem," says Trump, who are still predominantly voters of the democrats.
It is, of course, one big political game. Who is still looking for such a shutdown? We have already seen it before.
The market attaches little importance for the time being and assumes that it will all be of short duration.
Let us hope, because the White House figured that two weeks of shutdown reaches 0.1% of GNP.
If you have a rational president, you can indeed expect that sooner or later water will be added to the wine and that everything will be fine.
But we are dealing with Trump who takes great risks with his negotiation techniques.
That sometimes produces nice results, just look at North Korea.
But the penny can also fall to the other side, and then?
Certainly because the Democrats will do everything to keep Trump on their feet.
Why would they give in to this? Seen from their side, Trump can only lose.
And actually we can make the same reservations for the negotiations with China. Here, too, Trump takes great risks.
If the trade agreement does not evolve in the right direction, Trump will further increase the stakes, making a complete trade war seem inevitable.
Be sure that investors are currently on the tips of their toes and keep their finger on the sales button if it goes wrong here.


RE: Trumps political play - Carsten - 2019-01-07

Trump is unschooled in diplomacy. It's clear for all. He don't have the ability to speak and negotiate with people to find the best solution for all.

He is more like a Client Eastwood figure from a western movie. Shoot first ask later. We have now seen multiple times that his staff needs to clean up his mess, and often in deadlock situations there will be an excuse. The same is going to happen here. Very soon Trump realizes that he will not get his wall financed by US money, and Mexico will certainly not. It will be interesting to see how they are going to spin the story.


RE: Trumps political play - BobBobert - 2019-01-08

I think Trump has an advantage over the politicians because he has less of a soul then even they have. He can keep on with the shutdown, it does not affect him, his family and he needs no votes unless he is running for a second term. There is also the other side in that the wall may be very popular with his supporters - I remember it as one of his big campaign themes. That and cleaning the swamp. I cannot remember anything else so from that point of view he is doing what he was elected to do - building a wall and taking on the political classes.

I agree he is unschooled in diplomacy but, and this is where is on to a winner, he gets results like North Korea, he pulls troops out of unwinnable and long lasting conflicts (a vote winner for the masses, maybe not the political classes) and he looks strong.

I am glad he is not my leader.


RE: Trumps political play - Carsten - 2019-01-08

Trump is bad for the world. I see that more and more clearly. He ONLY focuses on internal US matters. The rest of the world is of no interest to him. I was not expecting this from him.