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Full Version: Economical situation 2020 (Corona)
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Sadly I agree with almost everything you write and predict. This crises is the worst ever and the world is changing while we are in it. The graph of unemployment rate in US is scary as you say https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/...ion-just-3

[Image: jobless_chart.jpg?itok=jtJql8ne]

I sadly think that the next year will hit so hard that the situation will get out of control when people are fired and not able to pay loans on their house and whatever other obligations they have. What out of control actually means is hard to say, but an increase in violence and robbery will for sure happen.

My job is also in serious danger now. It was so before the Corona crises, but now even more. Our Danish way of doing things are now thrown away by Germans and Americans running the company. It's brutal. Before the Corona crises it would not be that difficult for me to go out and get a new job, but now when everything is closed and no orders are coming in it will be impossible. Also the line of unemployed competing for the few jobs available will make it much harder. 

I hope that the crises will pass very very soon but there is no sign of a cure or vaccine to stop it yet.

All of this is because bats can carry many different viruses without getting sick. Then in Asia and in this case China (again) have these wet markets with animals from all over the world put together in a tiny space. Those animals would NEVER meet in nature but here in those wet markets they do and they infect each other for eventually creating a new virus that infect humans. What we can learn from this China virus is to INSTANTLY stop the legal and illegal wet markets to prevent a new virus to develop and spread. You could say that we have this crises just because some Chinese eat bats and illegal animals. It has to stop now.

Honestly I feel very depressed and fear the next months. In Denmark the prognosis says that the virus will peak 1 of July. So that's some scary prediction since the country is locked down and July is 2 months in the future. How long can we keep it locked before we collapse? How long can Europe be shutdown before it collapses? Not long and what will then happen?
(2020-04-04, 08:58 AM)Carsten Wrote: [ -> ]Sadly I agree with almost everything you write and predict. This crises is the worst ever and the world is changing while we are in it. The graph of unemployment rate in US is scary as you say https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/...ion-just-3

[Image: jobless_chart.jpg?itok=jtJql8ne]

I sadly think that the next year will hit so hard that the situation will get out of control when people are fired and not able to pay loans on their house and whatever other obligations they have. What out of control actually means is hard to say, but an increase in violence and robbery will for sure happen.

My job is also in serious danger now. It was so before the Corona crises, but now even more. Our Danish way of doing things are now thrown away by Germans and Americans running the company. It's brutal. Before the Corona crises it would not be that difficult for me to go out and get a new job, but now when everything is closed and no orders are coming in it will be impossible. Also the line of unemployed competing for the few jobs available will make it much harder. 

I hope that the crises will pass very very soon but there is no sign of a cure or vaccine to stop it yet.

All of this is because bats can carry many different viruses without getting sick. Then in Asia and in this case China (again) have these wet markets with animals from all over the world put together in a tiny space. Those animals would NEVER meet in nature but here in those wet markets they do and they infect each other for eventually creating a new virus that infect humans. What we can learn from this China virus is to INSTANTLY stop the legal and illegal wet markets to prevent a new virus to develop and spread. You could say that we have this crises just because some Chinese eat bats and illegal animals. It has to stop now.

Honestly I feel very depressed and fear the next months. In Denmark the prognosis says that the virus will peak 1 of July. So that's some scary prediction since the country is locked down and July is 2 months in the future. How long can we keep it locked before we collapse? How long can Europe be shutdown before it collapses? Not long and what will then happen?

A peak in about 3 months? This seems very pessimistic. Maybe you misread or misunderstood. Even In China it didn't took that long.
What is true is that economical and even mental recovery will take much much longer.

I believe here in Belgium we will have a peak very soon. Beginning next week. At least I hope so.
No I didn't misread it. 1 July is the best estimate from our official institute that are experts in virus.

Ing.dk is a serious paper by the union for Engineers and M.Sc like me. Here is the link. It's in Danish and you can only read the headlines since you don't have a subscription (it's also in Danish)

https://ing.dk/artikel/seruminstituttet-...uli-233797

Here is a graph

[Image: EUvsGUXXsAA2XE9?format=png&name=small]
A long long long article about the economy. Denmark is mentioned multiple times

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200...-the-world
(2020-04-04, 10:11 AM)Carsten Wrote: [ -> ]No I didn't misread it. 1 July is the best estimate from our official institute that are experts in virus.

Ing.dk is a serious paper by the union for Engineers and M.Sc like me. Here is the link. It's in Danish and you can only read the headlines since you don't have a subscription (it's also in Danish)

https://ing.dk/artikel/seruminstituttet-...uli-233797

Here is a graph

[Image: EUvsGUXXsAA2XE9?format=png&name=small]

Very strange. Why would it take so much longer to peak than in most other countries?
It is because of the lockdown that is causing the spread to slow down.

Next the model is just a model and not necessary correct. Maybe the peak in other countries are also not correct. Belgium has for sure not peaked yet.
just heard on the radio:
Denmark prepares to ease coronavirus restrictions.
I suppose that the Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksens coronavirus strategy is 'a political choice'
Because a deep recession may be more dangerous than a second outbreak.
(2020-04-06, 05:23 PM)Hugues Wrote: [ -> ]just heard on the radio:
Denmark prepares to ease coronavirus restrictions.
I suppose that the Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksens coronavirus strategy is 'a political choice'
Because a deep recession may be more dangerous than a second outbreak.

Yes, we are not hit as hard as Belgium and many other countries. Germany is even better than us and Norway too. Sweden are idiots as usual so it will become ugly there in 7-14 days.

It's not official what will open. We have to see after Easter. It depends on the behaviour of people during the next week. Nothing will be like before the virus for sure. Social distancing and gathering more than 10 people is probably still gonna be the mantra with maybe some exceptions.

Of course it's a political choice to open up again. There is a lot of pressure because the price of the lockdown is too high. People with other illness that could be serious are postponed which could result in many many more dead people than from the Corona virus. There are many reasons why keeping the system closed is worse than opening slowly. Then the financial side is also bad. House prices are expected to go down with more than 10%. Unemployment numbers will be higher than in many many years. Just to protect a few hundred or thousand lives.  The opening should be in a controlled manner so the hospitals don't get flooded with Corona virus patients of course. No matter the choice of what to do it comes with a price. 

Regarding a second wave there is still hope that some of the medication that is being investigated will have an effect. It will not save all, but if it can reduce the symptoms and we can avoid to many on the hospitals I think we should op again before the crises collapses everything.

That said I could easily loose my job now since the rest of the world is closed. It's important that Germany, USA and China get the wheels turning again. If not we are doomed.
Well....opening will be very slowly. Only small kids will be allowed to go to school and daycare after Easter. Everything else will stay closed until May 10'th. Music festivals, sport events etc. are forbidden until August.
(2020-04-07, 07:38 AM)Carsten Wrote: [ -> ]Well....opening will be very slowly. Only small kids will be allowed to go to school and daycare after Easter. Everything else will stay closed until May 10'th. Music festivals, sport events etc. are forbidden until August.

Here in Belgium it seems to be stabilizing.
For the 4th in a row less deaths, less new hospitalizations, less new infections, less people in intensive care and more and more people leaving hospitals.
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